Bali is in a delicate situation.
Situated, in a sense, at the edge of the world, the island lies in the vast ocean, on the Ring of Fire. Geographically alone, Bali is exposed and vulnerable — but economically, too, it exists in a fragile state.
If tourists stay away for a few months — or longer — many locals will return to their villages, leaving behind the tourist centers where they had been working in service roles or supply chains. They go back to working the vegetable fields and rice paddies, growing cassava and beans, living once again from the yield of the land. Just as was experienced recently during the Covid pandemic.
Over the past 60 years, Bali has gradually grown accustomed to prosperity. Generation after generation has adapted to the steady flow of money brought in by visitors — with one painful exception. The two years of Covid marked the end of many business plans. Some had only just opened a restaurant or a shop and — as is common — had paid several years of rent in advance. But the spaces remained empty. Many were forced to return to their villages.
This experience will — hopefully — remain in the awareness of that generation. Because resilience is required. The ability to prepare for the real possibility that the flow of visitors may once again dry up, and that financial income could abruptly stop — perhaps for even longer next time. For a society accustomed to prosperity, this will not be easy.
On other islands such as Flores, Lombok, Sumba, or Java, the situation would be different. There, most of the population has adapted without strong dependence on tourism. The domestic market sustains itself. Businesses emerge from local production, in interaction with a population of around 288 million people — of whom about 175 million are under the age of 35.
Bali, by contrast, has developed into a sensitive and potentially vulnerable market structure. Over the past four generations, young heirs of fertile land have increasingly stepped away from village life. They sought their fortune in fast cash — in direct contact with tourists, or within tourism-related services and supply chains.
Many of these activities lose their meaning almost instantly when tourism disappears. Entire sectors would come to a standstill: laundries, high-speed internet installations in every villa, cleaning crews, delicatessen shops with imported goods, supermarket chains, international fashion boutiques, transport fleets of buses, taxis and boats, medical tourism, international schools, the inflated construction industry, hotels, villas, and air travel.
Everything not directly tied to local food, agriculture, or the processing of local products would stop. What remains are local schools, administration, basic financial systems, and medical care — at a local level. For many, this would be an abrupt awakening from a modernized lifestyle.
What would then be required is the ability to shift quickly: toward economic activity within the domestic market, within the local community. And back to one’s own piece of land in the village — if it still exists.
Because if the land has already been sold, and an imposing villa now stands there, the situation becomes difficult. An empty villa is not edible, and its maintenance is costly. The farmland is gone — built over, sealed.
When I leave Bali and travel through Thailand or Malaysia, the island appears different from a distance. Almost like a theme park — a small island filled with events, cultural stagings, nightlife, tourist offerings, and holiday programs.
Every day, tickets are, in a sense, being purchased for this park. Visitors enjoy the privilege — and then they leave again. In a way, the island resembles a self-contained system: a tropical adventure park called Bali.
Most of its inhabitants are involved within this system as service providers, day laborers, or suppliers. If the park closes, what remains is the small house in the village, often home to three generations — passed down from the grandparents.
Balinese people live strongly in the present moment. Perhaps this is also their strength.
They will find ways to readjust should circumstances change — for geopolitical, geological, economic, or medical reasons that cannot always be anticipated. Bali will have to remember what it is beyond this role.
